Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has publicly committed to placing all non-state armed groups under state control by September 30, 2026 — a pledge he reiterated during his Washington visit and repeatedly since. The first serious enforcement test came in Baghdad’s Jurf al-Naddaf district: Iraqi troops were physically blocked from searching a Harakat al-Nujaba facility. Chatham House calls the disarmament task “impossible.” Al-Zaidi is trying anyway.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi took office in May 2026 with what has become his defining domestic commitment: a September 30, 2026 deadline for placing all non-state armed groups — including the constellation of Iran-backed factions loosely aggregated under the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) framework — under state control of arms. Al-Zaidi reiterated the pledge in Washington during his July 14 meetings with President Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, and again in his June 30 domestic anti-corruption address in Baghdad. The commitment is now the central metric by which US and Gulf partners are evaluating his government.
The first serious enforcement test made the difficulty of the pledge concrete. Al-Monitor reported that Iraqi government forces attempted to seize weapons at a Harakat al-Nujaba compound in Baghdad’s Jurf al-Naddaf district. Iraqi troops arrived at the Special Missions Regiment headquarters with orders to search for drones and missiles. Commanders loyal to Harakat al-Nujaba — a US-designated foreign terrorist organization — warned the officers that entry was not authorized. The Iraqi force stood down. No arrests, no seizure, no penalty.
The structural problem is why. Iran-backed militias in Iraq are not analogous to unauthorized armed groups in a normal state. They hold seats in the Iraqi parliament, occupy positions in the Iraqi government, and have built extensive business networks that rival the Iraqi Central Bank’s formal reach into the economy. As The National characterized it, quoting the director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, disarmament is “an impossible task” because the groups are “deeply embedded inside Iraqi territory.” The militias, in aggregate, rival the Iraqi national army in firepower — and control more coherent logistics chains and better fielded drone capabilities than most Iraqi Security Forces units.
Al-Zaidi has nonetheless produced some early positive signals. Long War Journal reported that several Iran-backed factions — including Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Imam Ali — issued public statements accepting the principle of state control over weapons. Al-Zaidi met delegations from both groups and publicly thanked their leadership. Whether the public statements convert into physical hand-over of weapons and integration into formal state chains of command is unproven. Historical precedent is not encouraging: prior Iraqi governments have secured similar public commitments repeatedly since 2018 without operational compliance.
The strategic stakes are substantial for all three principal actors. For al-Zaidi, meeting the September 30 deadline is what earns him the political capital to sustain his broader anti-corruption and modernization agenda — and what earns Baghdad the sustained US commercial engagement now flowing through the 48 agreements signed in Washington. For Tehran, the Iraqi factions represent both a strategic asset in the ongoing regional war and a deeply embedded set of political and economic constituencies whose surrender of arms Tehran will resist through every channel available. For Washington, the September 30 test is a proxy for a broader question: whether Iraqi state institutions can, in fact, be strengthened enough to displace parallel Iran-linked structures. The answer will define US-Iraq policy for the remainder of the decade.
Key Facts
- — Al-Zaidi pledge: all non-state armed groups under state control by September 30, 2026
- — First enforcement test failed: Iraqi troops turned back at Harakat al-Nujaba facility in Jurf al-Naddaf (Al-Monitor)
- — Chatham House Iraq Initiative director: disarmament is “an impossible task” (The National)
- — Iran-backed militias hold parliament seats, government positions; rival Iraqi army in firepower
- — Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Imam Ali publicly accepted state control of arms in principle (Long War Journal)
- — Reiterated during July 14 Trump & Hegseth meetings in Washington; ties to $60B commercial package
Sources: Al-Monitor — Zaidi push to disarm tested · Al Jazeera — Iraqi paramilitary disarmament analysis · The National — Al-Zaidi “impossible” task · The National — Zaidi vows militias will disarm after Trump meeting · Long War Journal — Militias accept state control (partial) · SyriacPress — Zaidi vows to disarm all non-state militias