RAND Corporation experts examine China’s cyber-AI deployment scenarios, AGI timeline implications, and what defense and intelligence policymakers must prepare for as artificial intelligence reshapes the global security landscape in 2026 and beyond.

The AI Security Threat Matrix

RAND’s 2026 security assessment identifies three primary vectors through which AI is transforming threat environments: autonomous decision-making in military systems, AI-accelerated cyber attack and defense, and the use of generative AI for disinformation at scale.

China’s Cyber-AI Integration

China has moved further than any other nation-state in integrating AI capabilities with offensive cyber operations. RAND documents multiple scenarios in which AI enables Chinese cyber actors to conduct highly targeted, adaptive intrusion campaigns against U.S. critical infrastructure at speeds that outpace traditional human-analyst response.

AGI Timeline: The Wild Card

The most consequential variable in RAND’s assessment is the potential emergence of Artificial General Intelligence — systems that can perform any cognitive task at or above human level. Current leading models suggest AGI could arrive within the 2027-2032 window, requiring policymakers to begin preparation now.

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