Source: RAND Corporation | 2026
Artificial intelligence is no longer a future threat — it is an active variable in global security calculations. RAND Corporation researchers have released a series of 2026 assessments examining how AI and the potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) could fundamentally reshape geopolitics, military operations, and intelligence tradecraft.
The China Cyber-AI Scenario
RAND’s Day After AGI game series — run across six separate scenarios — focused on a Cyber Surprise scenario in which China suddenly deployed a powerful cyber-AI capability against the United States. The simulations revealed significant gaps in current U.S. response frameworks, particularly around the speed of autonomous decision-making versus human oversight requirements.
AGI & Economic Advantage
RAND analysts warn that artificial general intelligence may differ from past technologies in ways that could allow the first nation to deploy it effectively to convert that early advantage into decisive and potentially irreversible economic and military dominance. Strategic AI cooperation between allied nations, the researchers argue, will be crucial for managing this risk.
Implications for Investigators & Security Teams
For corporate security directors and investigators, the RAND findings underscore several immediate priorities: AI-augmented fraud detection is now outperforming traditional auditing in identifying layered financial schemes; deepfake technology is creating new vectors for identity fraud in background screening; and state-sponsored AI tools are being used to conduct reconnaissance against private sector targets at scale.
Read the full RAND Global Security research at rand.org/topics/global-security. For AI-augmented fraud and security assessments, contact Lugals at lugals.com/contact.