Source: Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) | December 2025 – March 2026
The Council on Foreign Relations has identified five major foreign policy trends that will define the global intelligence and security landscape in 2026. For investigators, compliance officers, and corporate security teams, each trend carries direct operational implications.
1. China’s Critical Mineral Dominance
In 2025, China demonstrated its ability to weaponize control over critical minerals and rare earth elements, rolling out a new export control regime that put the world on notice. For due-diligence investigators, this means supply chain fraud risks have expanded significantly — with companies misrepresenting the origin of mineral inputs to circumvent restrictions.
2. Nuclear Arms Control Collapse
With New START expired and no successor agreement, the Federation of American Scientists projects that deployed U.S. and Russian warheads could exceed six thousand within a decade, while China is on track for 1,500 warheads by 2035. The proliferation environment elevates WMD-related due diligence requirements for contractors and exporters.
3. Trump Tariff Uncertainty
U.S. importers bore approximately 64 percent of the tariff burden from April 2026 reciprocal tariffs, according to Goldman Sachs economists. Trade compliance fraud — including misclassification, undervaluation, and transshipment schemes — is surging as companies seek to avoid tariff exposure.
4. The Rise of the Electrostate
China’s dominance in solar, battery, and EV supply chains is creating a new form of geopolitical dependency — the “electrostate.” Nations and corporations rushing to pivot away from fossil-fuel dependency are increasingly exposed to Chinese leverage over clean-energy infrastructure, raising new counterintelligence and vendor-vetting concerns.
5. Humanitarian Aid & Soft Power Vacuum
Cuts to U.S. humanitarian aid are creating soft-power vacuums that adversarial state actors — China, Russia, and Iran-linked networks — are actively filling. Investigators tracking sanctions evasion and illicit finance should monitor the NGO and aid sector as a new vector for money movement.
Read the full CFR analysis at cfr.org. For trade compliance, sanctions, and geopolitical risk assessments, contact Lugals at lugals.com/contact.